Design scenarios of Islamic Revolution Cultural emerging threats based on critical uncertainties Method

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Abstract

Functional weakness of cultural component at multiple levels is one of the challenging topics of the future and the origin of this weakness seen in the planning system. The consensus among experts on the basis of lack of proper functioning of this system has achieved the status quo, but there are differences in opinions about the proposed solution. In spite of these rich cultural context still faces threats, thus the need for other people's cultures and societies is attractive and Islam in this context of high has the potential too. Accordingly, in this paper we design the Islamic Revolution Cultural emerging threat scenarios, after identifying macro trends, the strategic thrust of this study, the driving position with high uncertainty, yet they are also the most important Using a panel of experts and the use of specialized software for Mick Mac was determined and Uncertainties of changing lifestyles, changing beliefs and values of the society and the convergence of technology and culture as the most important uncertainties identified, Also, due to the significant uncertainty in the three dimensional space is formed. In considering the appropriate mix of emerging threats to the cultural scenario of the proposed Islamic Revolution, the future ahead is presented. Also, due to the significant uncertainty in the three dimensional space is formed.

Keywords


-     داوری اردکانی، رضا (1379)، اوتوپی و عصر جدید، تهران: نشر ساقی.
-     موذن جامی، محمدمهدی (1389)، الگوی نقشه فرهنگی شهر تهران، تهران: دانشگاه دفاع ملی، نشر شهر، چاپ اول.
-     ولی، احمدرضا، (1386)، مطالعات اولیه فرایند آینده‌نگاری و انتخـاب روش‏های موردنیاز، مرکز‌ آینده‌پژوهی علوم و فناوری‌های دفاعی.
-     Bell, Wendell. (2003), Foundations of Futures Studies (2th ed.), New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.
-     Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Van Der Heijden, K. (2005), The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures, 37(8): 795–812.
-     Godet, M, (1979), The Crisis in Forecasting and the Emergence of the Prospective Approach: With Case Studies in Energy and Transport, translated by Pearse J D and H K Lennon, New York : Pergamon Press, p 4.
-     Scearce, D., Fulton, K. and the Global Business Network community (2004), What If? – The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits. Emeryville: Global Business Network.
-     Schoemaker, P. J.H. (1995), Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, Sloan Management Review. 36(2): 25-40.
-     Schwartz, P. (1991), The Art of the Long View. New York: Doubleday.
-     Van Notten, P. W. F., Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M. B. A. and Rothman, D. S. (2003), An updated scenario typology. Futures,35(5): 423-443.
-     Von Reibnitz, U. (1988), Scenario Techniques, Hamburg: McGraw-Hill.