Iran's foreign policy scenarios regarding the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations in the Middle East security complex: An analysis from the perspective of Peter Schwartz's model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Shiraz University

10.22084/rjir.2024.28294.3700

Abstract

Purpose: The Abraham Accords, have brought closer relations between Israel and the Arabs as two rival and opposing forces of Iran. This agreement has brought Iran's foreign policy into an important and challenging stage in the decision-making process against the new regional conditions. This research analyzes the relationship between Iran's foreign policy and the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations.
Research methodology: This article uses the method of future study by relying on two techniques of trend Analysis and scenario on the basis of the theory of regional security complex to explain the problem.
Findings: This article formulates the issue of which scenario for Iran's foreign policy against the normalization of Arab-Israeli relations after the Abraham Accords can be more effective in promoting these interests. This article believes that due to the increasing and expanding level of the normalization process, the completion of Israel's integration into the Middle East security complex, the principles and ideals of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the existence of Israel, ideological differences, the involvement of extra-regional powers, the instrumental and different view of the Persian Gulf countries, as well as the perception of the threat from Iran as disrupting the balance of power in the region, the scenario of pursuing the maintenance and development of bilateral and multilateral relations with the Arab neighbors and the countries of the region to weaken the normalization agreement between them seems necessary.
Conclusion: The results of this article show that the Abraham Accords are an obvious factor of enmity and tension building against the Islamic Republic, and Iran's ideal model can be de-escalation with the Arabs in the framework of an interactive and defensive process based on the diplomacy of interaction and connection and friendship with the Arabs, especially in the Persian Gulf.

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