سناریوهای پیش روی آینده محور مقاومت بر اساس عدم قطعیت های بحرانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکترای مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، ایران

10.22084/rjir.2021.24637.3358

چکیده

هدف: پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی ایران علاوه بر آن­ که نظم سلسله مراتبی و تبعیض‌گونه بین‌المللی را به چالش کشیده توانسته سبب طرح مفاهیم جدیدی در نظام بین‌الملل و تغییرات درون مجموعه نظم‌های منطقه‌ای شود که شکل‌گیری اندیشه محور مقاومت و ادبیات مربوط به آن یکی از این مفاهیم است. با درک ضرورت و اهمیت جایگاه محور مقاومت در معادلات منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی و تأثیرگذاری آن در تحولات منطقه غرب آسیا و جهان اسلام و به جهت جلوگیری از غافلیگری در آینده به سناریوهای پیش‌روی محور مقاومت پرداخته شده است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش پیش‌روی با رویکرد سناریو‌نویسی بر اساس عدم قطعیت‌های بحرانی و بهره گیری از مصاحبه خبرگانی در پی دستیابی به سناریوهای پیش­روی آینده محور مقاومت خواهد بود.
یافته­ ها: یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که با تکیه بر عدم قطعیت‌های شناسایی شده می‌توان سناریوهای نظم منطقه‌ای مقاومت محور، بازیابی و تداوم مقاومت، مقاومت منفعت‌گرا- مصلحت طلب و سناریوی اضمحلال را برای آینده محور مقاومت متصور بود.
نتیجه‌گیری: اساس و زیربنای شکل‌گیری محور مقاومت در مرحله اول، گفتمان آن است و گفتمان مقاومت قبل از شکل‌گیری عملیاتی و جغرافیایی آن متولد شده است. تداوم نقش‌آفرینی فعالانه این محور در معادلات منطقه­ ای و جهانی نیازمند تعالی‌بخشی گفتمانی و اتخاذ راهبردهای عقلانی است که لازم است در دستور کار این جبهه قرار گیرد.

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