سناریوهای پیش روی آینده محور مقاومت بر اساس عدم قطعیت های بحرانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکترای مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی دانشگاه شاهد، ایران

10.22084/rjir.2021.24637.3358

چکیده

هدف: پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی ایران علاوه بر آن­ که نظم سلسله مراتبی و تبعیض‌گونه بین‌المللی را به چالش کشیده توانسته سبب طرح مفاهیم جدیدی در نظام بین‌الملل و تغییرات درون مجموعه نظم‌های منطقه‌ای شود که شکل‌گیری اندیشه محور مقاومت و ادبیات مربوط به آن یکی از این مفاهیم است. با درک ضرورت و اهمیت جایگاه محور مقاومت در معادلات منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی و تأثیرگذاری آن در تحولات منطقه غرب آسیا و جهان اسلام و به جهت جلوگیری از غافلیگری در آینده به سناریوهای پیش‌روی محور مقاومت پرداخته شده است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش پیش‌روی با رویکرد سناریو‌نویسی بر اساس عدم قطعیت‌های بحرانی و بهره گیری از مصاحبه خبرگانی در پی دستیابی به سناریوهای پیش­روی آینده محور مقاومت خواهد بود.
یافته­ ها: یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که با تکیه بر عدم قطعیت‌های شناسایی شده می‌توان سناریوهای نظم منطقه‌ای مقاومت محور، بازیابی و تداوم مقاومت، مقاومت منفعت‌گرا- مصلحت طلب و سناریوی اضمحلال را برای آینده محور مقاومت متصور بود.
نتیجه‌گیری: اساس و زیربنای شکل‌گیری محور مقاومت در مرحله اول، گفتمان آن است و گفتمان مقاومت قبل از شکل‌گیری عملیاتی و جغرافیایی آن متولد شده است. تداوم نقش‌آفرینی فعالانه این محور در معادلات منطقه­ ای و جهانی نیازمند تعالی‌بخشی گفتمانی و اتخاذ راهبردهای عقلانی است که لازم است در دستور کار این جبهه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

  • Akbari, Hossein (2009). "Resistance Phenomenon, the Framework for Exercising Transnational Power" Defense Policies, Year 17, No. 66. (In Persian)
  • Akhavan, Mohammad Javad; Tajik, Hadi (2020). "Study of the theoretical foundations of the nuclei of Islamic resistance in the discourse of the Islamic Revolution" Quarterly Journal of the Islamic Revolution, Year 10, No. 35. (In Persian)
  • Alizadeh, Aziz; Vahidi Motlagh, Vahid; Nazemi, Amir (2008). Scenario writing or programming based on scenarios, Publications: Ati Negar. (In Persian)
  • Asadollahi, Massoud (2000). "History of Hezbollah", Institute of Studies and Research of Noor Thinkers, Tehran. (In Persian)
  • Bagheri Dolatabadi, Ali (2017). "Comparison of Obama and Trump policies in the face of the Syrian crisis", Political-Economic Quarterly, No. 308, pp. 231-212. (In Persian)
  • Bell, wendel (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: Volume (1) History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Human Science for a New Era Series), 1st Edition, London: Routledge
  • Dehshiri, Mohammad Reza (2009). Conceptual and theoretical reflection of the Islamic Revolution of Iran in international relations. Tehran, scientific and cultural publications. (In Persian)
  • Enayatullah, Soheil (2009). Question of the future: futures studies as knowledge and tools of organizational and social change. Translated by Massoud Manzavi, Tehran, Center for Defense Science and Technology. (In Persian)
  • Ghasemi, Behzad (2018). "Geopolitics of the axis of resistance and national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the discourse of the Islamic Revolution". Quarterly Journal of Security Horizons, Volume 11, Number 38. (In Persian)
  • Gordon, Adam (2013). Understanding the Future. Translated by Tayebeh Vaezi, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies Publications.
  • Hedayati Shahidani, Mehdi (2020). Axis of Resistance, Noor Institute of Thought Studies, Tehran. (In Persian)
  • Heshmatzadeh, Mohammad Baqer (2005). "Introduction and a framework for studying the effects of the Islamic Revolution in Islamic countries" Research Letter, No. 12. (In Persian)
  • Jafari Valdani, Mohammad (2009). "Saudi Arabia and the Dream of Dominating Yemen", Quarterly Journal of Political and International Approaches, No. 17, pp. 67-63. (In Persian)
  • Jafarifar, Ehsan;Ihrami, Sajjad (2018). "Regional Impacts of Hezbollah and Israel Involvement in the Syrian Crisis", Quarterly Journal of Southwest Asia Studies, First Year No. 4. (In Persian)
  • Katz, Brian (2018). Axis Rising: Iran’s Evolving Regional Strategy And Non-State Partnerships In The Middle East,Center For Strategic & International Studies, Csis.
  • Manzavi, Massoud (2010). Scenario planning guide, published by Future Research Center of Technological and Defense Sciences, Tehran. Center for Future Studies and Technology Science. (In Persian)
  • Mobini, Dehkordi; Ali, Khaleghi; Arminonobri, Niloufar (2020). Advanced analysis of the strategic environment (uncertainty, complexity and intelligence). Tehran, University of Tehran Press. (In Persian)
  • Naderi, Massoud; Tajik, Hadi (2018). "Strategic scenarios of relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia in the horizon of 2030 AD" Quarterly Journal of Defense Futurism, Third Year, No. 11. (In Persian)
  • Nazemi Ardakani, Mehdi; Khaledian, Safar Ali (2018). "Cultural components of the discourse of Islamic resistance in the Islamic world." Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World, seventh year, No. 2. (In Persian)
  • Nowruzi, Mohsen; Fayyazi, Davood ; Seif, Hamed (2021). "Future Studies of Factors Affecting the Axis of Resistance with Emphasis on the Unrest in Iraq and Lebanon" Quarterly Journal of Defense Strategy, Year 19, No. 74. (In Persian)
  • Pirzad Far, Ali (2007). "Lebanon's Hezbollah Resistance Movement and the Zionist Regime's Hostile Defeat in the 33-Day War," Journal of Military Science and Technology, No. 5: 91-74. (In Persian)
  • Pishgahi Fard, Zahra (2015). “Shiite Geopolitics and Iranian Territorialism in the Eastern Mediterranean”, Quarterly Journal of Shiite Studies, No. 49: 29-7. (In Persian)
  • Postinchi, Zohreh; Mottaqi, Ebrahim (2013). "The Political Language of Islamic Resistance in International Politics". Quarterly Journal of International Relations Studies, Volume 1, Number 1. (In Persian)
  • Rezakhah, Alireza (2013). "Islamic Awakening and the Future of Resistance", Zamaneh Magazine, No. 32: 32-33. (In Persian)
  • Sabzian, Musayabadi; Mozaffari, Alireza; Mozaffari, Hanieh (2009). "Goals and Consequences of the 22-Day War of the Zionist Regime against Gaza", Quarterly Journal of Political and International Research, First Year No. 2. (In Persian)
  • Sadeghi, Seyed Shamsuddin; Lotfi, Kamran (2016). "Yemen Crisis", World Policy Quarterly, No. 1: 64 - 42. (In Persian)
  • Sasanian, Raouf; Sheibani, Mohammad Reza (2019). "Study of Resistance Axis Developments", National Security Watch, No. 86: 104-101. (In Persian)
  • Schwartz, Peter (2009). The Art of Foresight (Planning for the Future in a World of Uncertainty) Translated by Aziz Alizadeh, Tehran, Defense Science and Technology Research Center.
  • Shafi'i, Nozar; Moradi, Ahmad (2009). "The Impact of the 33-Day War on the Regional Situation in Iran", Quarterly Journal of Political and International Research, No. 1: 64-41. (In Persian)
  • Shiroudi, Morteza; Shah Ali, Ahmad Reza; Jamshidi-Fard, Karam (2019). "Facing the Shiite Resistance Discourse and the Brotherhood Salafi Discourse on Traditional Security Arrangements in West Asia", Quarterly Journal of International Relations Studies, Volume 12, Number 48. (In Persian)
  • Sullivan, M (2014). hezbollah in syria. Institute for the Study of War. (2018). WORLD MIGRATION. International Organization for Migration (IOM).

 

فایل ها

اشتراک گذاری

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار