تأثیر ترور شهید قاسم سلیمانی بر قدرت منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکترای علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران

چکیده

هدف: یکی از اهداف آمریکا برای ترور شهید سلیمانی پایان دادن به نفوذ و قدرت منطقه‌­ای ایران بود. اکنون و پس از گذشت سه سال از ترور ایشان، این سؤال مطرح است که شهادت حاج قاسم سلیمانی چه تأثیری در میزان نفوذ و قدرت منطقه‌ای ایران برجای گذاشته است؟ فرضیه پژوهش این است که با ترور شهید سلیمانی تغییری در قدرت منطقه‌­ای ایران ایجاد نشده است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش حاضر بر اساس روش مقایسه‌ای- تحلیلی و نظریه ساختار- کارگزار انجام شده است.
یافته­‌ها: یافته‌­های پژوهش نشان دادند که برخلاف انتظار مقامات آمریکایی ترور شهید سلیمانی به قدرت و نفوذ منطقه­‌ای ایران پایان نبخشیده است. ایران همچنان در سوریه، یمن و عراق حضور فعال دارد. در سوریه بشاراسد روند تنش‌­زدایی با دولت‌­های عرب منطقه را آغاز نموده و با مشارکت ایران روند بازسازی شهرها را پیگیری می­کند. در یمن هر دو طرف منازعه- انصارالله و عربستان- بر سر آتش‌بس موقت توافق کرده‌­اند و زمینه برای گفتگوهای سیاسی در حال آماده شدن است. در عراق نیز با کنار رفتن دولت ضدایرانی مصطفی الکاظمی و تشکیل دولت شیاع السودانی فضا برای کنشگری ایران بیشتر شده است.
نتیجه‌­گیری: قدرت منطقه‌­ای ایران برخاسته از شبکه قدرت و ارتباطات گسترده و پیچیده آن در خاورمیانه است. این شبکه به هیچ وجه متکی به فرد یا مقام خاصی در ایران و منطقه نیست و ساختارهای این شبکه به نحوی طراحی شده‌اند که با تغییر و برکناری مدیران نیز قادر به تداوم فعالیت و اثربخشی است.

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