هدف: هدف این مقاله شناخت سناریوهای حکمرانی امنیتی در جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1404 است. روش‌شناسی پژوهش: در راستای نیل به این هدف، نویسنده 39 روند و 8 پیشران (عدالت، پاسخگویی، اصلاح سیاستگذاری، سرمایه اجتماعی، فرهنگ اعتراض، کنترل فضای مجازی، اقدامات و نفوذ دشمن، تنظیم‌گری) را با بررسی متون و ادبیات موجود، شناسایی نمود و آنها را با تهیه پرسشنامه‌های محقق‌ساخت و توزیع آن بین 15 خبره متخصص و تحلیل داده‌های گردآوری شده با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS اعتبارسنجی کرد. در گام بعدی با بهره‌گیری از نرم‌افزارهای میک‌مک، عوامل تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر را مشخص و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد، سناریوهای باورپذیر و محتمل را شناسایی کرد. یافته‌ها: خروجی داده‌های گردآوری شده از جامعه نمونه این تحقیق بیانگر وجود چهار سناریوی «حکمرانی امنیتی کارآمد، ناقص، ناقص‌تر و بد» است که متناسب با عملکردها، می‌توانند شکل بگیرند. نتیجه‌گیری: رسیدن به حکمرانی امنیتی کارآمد، نیازمند «تصمیمات نرم ولی دشوار» است. از الزامات حکمرانی امنیتی به‌ویژه در دهه‌ی آینده، مشارکت و همکاری اثرگذار مردم در این فرایند است که این مهم در گرو، نفی تصدی‌گری حکومت است. دولت‌های تنظیم‌گر و ریل‌گذار، در حکمرانی امنیتی موفق‌تر خواهند بود. «دکترین مردمی‌سازی امنیت»، بهترین آموزه برای حکمرانی امنیتی بوده و عالی‌ترین سطح «امنیت» و بالاترین حد «رضایت» را ایجاد می‌نماید.
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عسگری, محمود. (1401). سناریوهای حکمرانی امنیتی در ج.ا.ایران در افق 1404. پژوهشنامه انقلاب اسلامی, 12(42), 101-127. doi: 10.22084/rjir.2022.25536.3436
MLA
محمود عسگری. "سناریوهای حکمرانی امنیتی در ج.ا.ایران در افق 1404". پژوهشنامه انقلاب اسلامی, 12, 42, 1401, 101-127. doi: 10.22084/rjir.2022.25536.3436
HARVARD
عسگری, محمود. (1401). 'سناریوهای حکمرانی امنیتی در ج.ا.ایران در افق 1404', پژوهشنامه انقلاب اسلامی, 12(42), pp. 101-127. doi: 10.22084/rjir.2022.25536.3436
VANCOUVER
عسگری, محمود. سناریوهای حکمرانی امنیتی در ج.ا.ایران در افق 1404. پژوهشنامه انقلاب اسلامی, 1401; 12(42): 101-127. doi: 10.22084/rjir.2022.25536.3436
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